The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index fell 0.3 percent in January, giving up some, but retaining much of December’s exceptional 1.8 percent sequential gain. On a year-over-year basis, the PCI increased 3.4 percent in January, making it the fourteenth straight month of year-over-year growth.
Another factor affecting January’s PCI figure is the record-breaking snowfalls being experienced in the United States this winter. From a regional perspective, the heavily traveled Northeast and North Central regions of the nation were hit particularly hard. Data shows that trucking was off by about one 1 to 2 percent during this affected time, and activity was stronger at the end of the month than it was in the beginning.
“Some of December’s growth was driven by an unusually strong performance during the week between Christmas and New Years,” explained Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “This combined with the treacherous winter storms likely detracted somewhat from the January result. However, when viewed in the context of a three month moving average, the PCI clearly shows that the economic recovery remains on track.”
“From an absolute standpoint, GDP is now slightly ahead of the previous peak reached in Q4 07. But the PCI and Industrial Production are still about 5 percent below their previous peaks — meaning that the goods producing component of GDP is still well below its previous high,” said Craig Manson, senior vice president and index expert for Ceridian. “We are not yet seeing PCI growth robust enough to drive meaningful gains in employment.”
Based on their experience and the PCI data, both Leamer and Manson believe that there could be major revisions coming to the inventory and import related components within the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ initial Q4 10 GDP report.
“Growth comparisons for the PCI on a year over year basis – particularly in the first half of the year – remain difficult. Nevertheless, our outlook for 2011 is for continued economic recovery and we expect GDP to grow at the historically “normal” rate of 3 percent, accompanied by a persistent level of high unemployment,” added Manson.
The complete January report, regional analysis and additional commentary are available at www.ceridianindex.com.
Printer Friendly Version
Email This Story
RSS
Economy: Related News
2/11/2011 – January Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index Posts 14th Consecutive Month of Year-over-Year Growth
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index fell 0.3 percent in January, giving up some, but retaining much of December’s exceptional 1.8 percent sequential gain….
More
2/10/2011 – Freight Transportation Services Index Up 1.5% in December from November
The Freight Transportation Services Index rose 1.5 percent in December from its November level, rising after one monthly decline, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today….
More
2/9/2011 – TransCore’s North American Freight Index Records Highest January Volumes Ever
January spot-market freight availability increased 62 percent over January 2010 volumes, according to TransCore’s North American Freight Index….
More
2/8/2011 – TransCore Says Average Linehaul Rate Back to December Level of $1.55 per Mile
A 2.1 percent increase in flatbed rates nationwide brought the average line haul rate back up to December levels of $1.55 per mile, according to TransCore Truckload Trendlines…
More
2/7/2011 – January Cass Freight Index up 27% Year Over Year
According to the Cass Freight Index, freight shipments declined in January for the second consecutive month, but were higher than levels for the same period in 2010. …
More
2/2/2011 – FTR’s Trucking Condition Index Increases to New High
FTR’s Trucking Condition Index rose to 7.1 in December, the highest level yet recorded during the current recovery….
More
1/26/2011 – ATA Tonnage Index Jumps 2.2 Percent
The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.2 percent in December after falling a revised 0.6 percent in November. The latest improvement put the index at its highest level since September 2008….
More
1/18/2011 – Economy, Trucking Looking Up for 2011
A string of economic experts and industry analysts offered a more optimistic look at the economic and trucking industry outlook for 2011 — albeit with some downsides — during the annual Heavy Duty Dialogue event put on Monday by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association in Las Vegas….
More
1/13/2011 – DOT Freight Index Falls 0.3% in November from October
The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Freight Transportation Services Index fell 0.3 percent in November from its October level, declining after two monthly increases….
More
1/13/2011 – Moving Group Sees Upturn in Household Moves and Employee Relocations
Private and corporate household relocations continued to increase during the first three quarters of 2010, reflecting the gradual improvement in the overall U.S. economy, according to the latest issue of Industry Trends from the American Moving Storage Association….
More
1/13/2011 – FTR Says Shipper Index Neutral; Predicts Tightening Carrier Capacity
FTR Associates says while its Shippers Condition Index is currently at neutral, it expects that will shortly change as carrier capacity tightens and the economy comes out of its recent pause….
More
1/12/2011 – Year-End Surge Reported in Latest Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index surged 2.4 percent in December and pushed the PCI above its previous 2010 peak established in May. This performance, combined with November’s 0.4 percent increase, was enough to offset three previous consecutive months of decline….
More
1/12/2011 – ACT Research: Commercial Vehicle Market Beginning Upcycle
The fundamentals that support heavy-duty commercial vehicle demand are all signaling the start of an upcycle for the market, according to ACT Research Co. …
More
1/7/2011 – December Class 8 Net Orders Top 25,000
FTR Associates has released preliminary data showing December Class 8 truck total net orders for all major North American OEM’s at 25,247 units, only a slight 3% drop from the strong November activity….
More
1/6/2011 – BTS: October Surface Trade with Canada and Mexico Tops $70 billion
Trade using surface transportation between the United States and its North American Free Trade Agreement partners, Canada and Mexico, was 14.9 percent higher in October 2010 than in October 2009, reaching $70.6 billion…
More
1/5/2011 – Texas Leads U.S. in Inbound Migration, Michigan Leads in Outbound Moves
For the sixth year in a row, Texas eclipsed every other state and took the lead as the No. 1 magnet state in 2010, based on Allied Van Lines 43rd Annual Magnet States Report, which tracks U.S. migration patterns….
More
1/5/2011 – Manufacturing Numbers Point to a Stronger Year Ahead
Tax cuts, renewed consumer confidence, expansion in the manufacturing sector and even a rise in construction spending are all giving the economy a much needed New Year’s boost….
More